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AlChaer, E and Issa, C A (2020) Engineering Productivity Measurement: A Novel Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Cai, S, Ma, Z, Skibniewski, M J, Bao, S and Wang, H (2020) Construction Automation and Robotics for High-Rise Buildings: Development Priorities and Key Challenges. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Chen, Y, Chen, S, Hu, C, Jin, L and Zheng, X (2020) Novel Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model Integrating Risk Allocation and Claim in Hydropower Project. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Hydropower project; Probabilistic cost estimation; Risk allocation; Claim; Bargaining game;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001893
- Abstract:
The uncertain construction of hydropower projects and fierce market competition put forward more stringent requirements for contractors with regard to accuracy and competitiveness of cost estimation. However, previous probabilistic cost estimation models are mostly devoid of loss-sharing considerations. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic cost estimation model integrating risk allocation and claim. The bargaining game between the owner and the contractor is first used to determine the proportion of risk allocation in the price fluctuation and the claim amount in the engineering quantity variation. Then, these two key parameters are incorporated into a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic cost risk simulation. The proposed model is applied to an actual hydropower project, and the results show that the risk reserve fund of the proposed model only accounts for 2.66% of the budget under 80% completion probability, and the average cost risk sensitive coefficient of the proposed model has more than tripled. From the results, the cost estimation value calculated by the novel model is more competitive and accurate in bidding; in addition, to reduce additional cost expenditures, the contractor should maintain a high level of patience during negotiations. This research contributes to improving the probability of winning a contract without sacrificing the contractor’s profit and to extending the current theory of probabilistic cost estimation.
Han, Y, Yin, Z, Zhang, J, Jin, R and Yang, T (2020) Eye-Tracking Experimental Study Investigating the Influence Factors of Construction Safety Hazard Recognition. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Ibrahim, M W, Hanna, A S, Russell, J S, Abotaleb, I S and El-adaway, I H (2020) Quantitative Analysis of the Impacts of Out-of-Sequence Work on Project Performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Jiang, Y and Bai, Y (2020) Estimation of Construction Site Elevations Using Drone-Based Orthoimagery and Deep Learning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Kim, J J, Miller, J A and Kim, S (2020) Cost Impacts of Change Orders due to Unforeseen Existing Conditions in Building Renovation Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Li, H, Lv, L, Zuo, J, Su, L, Wang, L and Yuan, C (2020) Dynamic Reputation Incentive Mechanism for Urban Water Environment Treatment PPP Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Li, J, Wang, H, Xie, Y and Zeng, W (2020) Human Error Identification and Analysis for Shield Machine Operation Using an Adapted TRACEr Method. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Ryu, J, Alwasel, A, Haas, C T and Abdel-Rahman, E (2020) Analysis of Relationships between Body Load and Training, Work Methods, and Work Rate: Overcoming the Novice Mason’s Risk Hump. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Sonmez, R, Aminbakhsh, S and Atan, T (2020) Activity Uncrashing Heuristic with Noncritical Activity Rescheduling Method for the Discrete Time-Cost Trade-Off Problem. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Tan, T, Lu, W, Tan, G, Xue, F, Chen, K, Xu, J, Wang, J and Gao, S (2020) Construction-Oriented Design for Manufacture and Assembly Guidelines. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Yin, X, Chen, Y, Bouferguene, A, Zaman, H, Al-Hussein, M and Russell, R (2020) Data-Driven Framework for Modeling Productivity of Closed-Circuit Television Recording Process for Sewer Pipes. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Zhan, W and Pan, W (2020) Formulating Systemic Construction Productivity Enhancement Strategies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Zhang, R P, Lingard, H and Oswald, D (2020) Impact of Supervisory Safety Communication on Safety Climate and Behavior in Construction Workgroups. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Zheng, J, Wen, Q and Qiang, M (2020) Understanding Demand for Project Manager Competences in the Construction Industry: Data Mining Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).
Zhu, L, Cheung, S O, Gao, X, Li, Q and Liu, G (2020) Success DNA of a Record-Breaking Megaproject. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(08).